Developing expert scientific consensus on the environmental and societal effects of marine artificial structures prior to decommissioning.

Thousands of artificial ('human-made') structures are present in the marine environment, many at or approaching end-of-life and requiring urgent decisions regarding their decommissioning. No consensus has been reached on which decommissioning option(s) result in optimal environmental and societal outcomes, in part, owing to a paucity of evidence from real-world decommissioning case studies. To address this significant challenge, we asked a worldwide panel of scientists to provide their expert opinion. They were asked to identify and characterise the ecosystem effects of artificial structures in the sea, their causes and consequences, and to identify which, if any, should be retained following decommissioning. Experts considered that most of the pressures driving ecological and societal effects from marine artificial structures (MAS) were of medium severity, occur frequently, and are dependent on spatial scale with local-scale effects of greater magnitude than regional effects. The duration of many effects following decommissioning were considered to be relatively short, in the order of days. Overall, environmental effects of structures were considered marginally undesirable, while societal effects marginally desirable. Experts therefore indicated that any decision to leave MAS in place at end-of-life to be more beneficial to society than the natural environment. However, some individual environmental effects were considered desirable and worthy of retention, especially in certain geographic locations, where structures can support improved trophic linkages, increases in tourism, habitat provision, and population size, and provide stability in population dynamics. The expert analysis consensus that the effects of MAS are both negative and positive for the environment and society, gives no strong support for policy change whether removal or retention is favoured until further empirical evidence is available to justify change to the status quo. The combination of desirable and undesirable effects associated with MAS present a significant challenge for policy- and decision-makers in their justification to implement decommissioning options. Decisions may need to be decided on a case-by-case basis accounting for the trade-off in costs and benefits at a local level.

To what extent can decommissioning options for marine artificial structures move us toward environmental targets?

Switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is key to international energy transition efforts and the move toward net zero. For many nations, this requires decommissioning of hundreds of oil and gas infrastructure in the marine environment. Current international, regional and national legislation largely dictates that structures must be completely removed at end-of-life although, increasingly, alternative decommissioning options are being promoted and implemented. Yet, a paucity of real-world case studies describing the impacts of decommissioning on the environment make decision-making with respect to which option(s) might be optimal for meeting international and regional strategic environmental targets challenging. To address this gap, we draw together international expertise and judgment from marine environmental scientists on marine artificial structures as an alternative source of evidence that explores how different decommissioning options might ameliorate pressures that drive environmental status toward (or away) from environmental objectives. Synthesis reveals that for 37 United Nations and Oslo-Paris Commissions (OSPAR) global and regional environmental targets, experts consider repurposing or abandoning individual structures, or abandoning multiple structures across a region, as the options that would most strongly contribute toward targets. This collective view suggests complete removal may not be best for the environment or society. However, different decommissioning options act in different ways and make variable contributions toward environmental targets, such that policy makers and managers would likely need to prioritise some targets over others considering political, social, economic, and ecological contexts. Current policy may not result in optimal outcomes for the environment or society.

Global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic by recreational anglers: considerations for developing more resilient and sustainable fisheries.

The global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in many jurisdictions implementing orders restricting the movements of people to inhibit virus transmission, with recreational angling often either not permitted or access to fisheries and/or related infrastructure being prevented. Following the lifting of restrictions, initial angler surveys and licence sales suggested increased participation and effort, and altered angler demographics, but with evidence remaining limited. Here, we overcome this evidence gap by identifying temporal changes in angling interest, licence sales, and angling effort in world regions by comparing data in the 'pre-pandemic' (up to and including 2019); 'acute pandemic' (2020) and 'COVID-acclimated' (2021) periods. We then identified how changes can inform the development of more resilient and sustainable recreational fisheries. Interest in angling (measured here as angling-related internet search term volumes) increased substantially in all regions during 2020. Patterns in licence sales revealed marked increases in some countries during 2020 but not in others. Where licence sales increased, this was rarely sustained in 2021; where there were declines, these related to fewer tourist anglers due to movement restrictions. Data from most countries indicated a younger demographic of people who participated in angling in 2020, including in urban areas, but this was not sustained in 2021. These short-lived changes in recreational angling indicate efforts to retain younger anglers could increase overall participation levels, where efforts can target education in appropriate angling practices and create more urban angling opportunities. These efforts would then provide recreational fisheries with greater resilience to cope with future global crises, including facilitating the ability of people to access angling opportunities during periods of high societal stress. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-023-09784-5.

Recreational fishing, health and well-being: findings from a cross-sectional survey.

We evaluated the associations between marine recreational fishing, stress, seafood consumption, and sleep quality in a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey of a convenience sample of 244 fishers recruited in 2019 in Spain. Fishers' stress levels were moderate, with a mean stress index score of 36.4 units on a scale from 14 (very low stress) to 70 (very high). Their average emotional condition was positive, with a mean index of negative affect of 7.8 units on a scale from 5 (very low negative affect) to 25 (very high). Seafood intake was low, with a mean index of seafood in diets of 38.0 units on a scale from 20 (very low seafood consumption) to 160 (very high). Fishers' perceived quality of night sleep was good because the mean index of sleep problems was 39.5 units on a scale from 21 (very low sleep problems) to 107 (very high). Each hour of self-reported monthly fishing activity was associated with 0.016 units of lower stress score. Thus, the most engaged fishers reported up to 15.4% lower stress score than less avid fishers. Since recreational fishing is a highly accessible outdoor activity for people in older age groups, it is possible that public health could be improved by access to sustainably managed recreational fisheries. Fishing engagement was positively associated with seafood intake. Each hour of fishing per month was associated with one-unit higher seafood consumption. The higher seafood consumption observed among avid recreational fishers compared with less avid fishers might have health implications.

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity.

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Factors affecting fisher decisions: The case of the inshore fishery for European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax).

Fishery management relies on forecasts of fish abundance over time and space, on scales of months and kilometres. While much research has focussed on the drivers of fish populations, there has been less investigation of the decisions made day-to-day by fishers and their subsequent impact on fishing pressure. Studies that focus on the fisher decisions of smaller vessels may be particularly important due to the prevalence of smaller vessels in many fisheries and their potential vulnerability to bad weather and economic change. Here we outline a methodology with which to identify the factors affecting fisher decisions and success as well as quantifying their effects. We analyse first the decision of when to leave port, and then the success of the fishing trip. Fisher behaviour is here analysed in terms of the decisions taken by fishers in response to bio-physical and socio-economic changes and to illustrate our method, we describe its application to the under 10-meter fleet targeting sea bass in the UK. We document the effects of wave height and show with increasing wave height fewer vessels left port to go fishing. The decision to leave port was only substantially affected by time of high tide at one of the four ports investigated. We measured the success of fishing trips by the landings of sea bass (kg) per metre of vessel length. Fishing success was lower when wave height was greater and when fish price had increased relative to the previous trip. Fuel price was unimportant, but a large proportion of the variation in success was explained by variation between individual vessels, presumably due to variation in skipper ability or technical restrictions due to vessel characteristics. The results are discussed in the context of management of sea bass and other small-scale inshore fisheries.

Big data from a popular app reveals that fishing creates superhighways for aquatic invaders.

Human activities are the leading cause of biological invasions that cause ecologic and economic damage around the world. Aquatic invasive species (AIS) are often spread by recreational anglers who visit two or more bodies of water within a short time frame. Movement data from anglers are, therefore, critical to predicting, preventing, and monitoring the spread of AIS. However, the lack of broad-scale movement data has restricted efforts to large and popular lakes or small geographic extents. Here, we show that recreational fishing apps are an abundant, convenient, and relatively comprehensive source of "big" movement data across the contiguous United States. Our analyses revealed a dense network of angler movements that was dramatically more interconnected and extensive than the network that is formed naturally by rivers and streams. Short-distanced movements by anglers combined to form invasion superhighways that spanned the contiguous United States. We also identified possible invasion fronts and invaded hub lakes that may be superspreaders for two relatively common aquatic invaders. Our results provide unique insight into the national network through which AIS may be spread, increase opportunities for interjurisdictional coordination that is essential to addressing the problem of AIS, and highlight the important role that anglers can play in providing accurate data and preventing invasions. The advantages of mobile devices as both sources of data and a means of engaging the public in their shared responsibility to prevent invasions are probably general to all forms of tourism and recreation that contribute to the spread of invasive species.

Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections.

Environmental and ecosystem models can help to guide management of changing natural systems by projecting alternative future states under a common set of scenarios. Combining contrasting models into multi-model ensembles (MMEs) can improve the skill and reliability of projections, but associated uncertainty complicates communication of outputs, affecting both the effectiveness of management decisions and, sometimes, public trust in scientific evidence itself. Effective data visualisation can play a key role in accurately communicating such complex outcomes, but we lack an evidence base to enable us to design them to be visually appealing whilst also effectively communicating accurate information. To address this, we conducted a survey to identify the most effective methods for visually communicating the outputs of an ensemble of global climate models. We measured the accuracy, confidence, and ease with which the survey participants were able to interpret 10 visualisations depicting the same set of model outputs in different ways, as well as their preferences. Dot and box plots outperformed all other visualisations, heat maps and radar plots were comparatively ineffective, while our infographic scored highly for visual appeal but lacked information necessary for accurate interpretation. We provide a set of guidelines for visually communicating the outputs of MMEs across a wide range of research areas, aimed at maximising the impact of the visualisations, whilst minimizing the potential for misinterpretations, increasing the societal impact of the models and ensuring they are well-placed to support management in the future.

Assessing the impact of management on sea anglers in the UK using choice experiments.

Recreational sea angling is a popular activity generating significant socio-economic benefits but can impact on fish stocks. The motivations of recreational sea anglers go beyond catch, with a diverse range of motivations relating to physical health and well-being. Heterogenous motives and the popularity of catch and release practices mean that applying commercial fisheries management goals (maximum sustainable yield) to recreational fisheries could result in reduced participation, increased non-compliance, and a subsequent loss of both market and non-market values generated through recreational angling activities. Hence, assessment of sea angler preferences for management is important for the development of appropriate management strategies. In this study, a choice experiment was conducted to assess sea anglers' preferences for changes in UK sea angling management measures. Stated preferences for catching, keeping, and releasing fish due to bag limits and minimum-landing sizes were assessed. Willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for marginal changes of catching the first sea bass on a trip were between £11 and £31 depending on whether the fish could be kept or released and between £11 and £28 for cod, respectively. WTP was much higher for fish caught and kept than caught and released suggesting that consumption of fish was an important motivation. Minimum size was the most considered choice attribute for respondents, while cost was less commonly considered. The implications of the findings are discussed in the context of future management of recreational fisheries.

Technological innovations in the recreational fishing sector: implications for fisheries management and policy.

Technology that is developed for or adopted by the recreational fisheries sector (e.g., anglers and the recreational fishing industry) has led to rapid and dramatic changes in how recreational anglers interact with fisheries resources. From improvements in finding and catching fish to emulating their natural prey and accessing previously inaccessible waters, to anglers sharing their exploits with others, technology is completely changing all aspects of recreational fishing. These innovations would superficially be viewed as positive from the perspective of the angler (aside from the financial cost of purchasing some technologies), yet for the fisheries manager and policy maker, technology may create unintended challenges that lead to reactionary or even ill-defined approaches as they attempt to keep up with these changes. The goal of this paper is to consider how innovations in recreational fishing are changing the way that anglers interact with fish, and thus how recreational fisheries management is undertaken. We use a combination of structured reviews and expert analyses combined with descriptive case studies to highlight the many ways that technology is influencing recreational fishing practice, and, relatedly, what it means for changing how fisheries and/or these technologies need to be managed-from changes in fish capture, to fish handling, to how anglers share information with each other and with managers. Given that technology is continually evolving, we hope that the examples provided here lead to more and better monitoring of technological innovations and engagement by the management and policy authorities with the recreational fishing sector. Doing so will ensure that management actions related to emerging and evolving recreational fishing technology are more proactive than reactive.

SEASIM-NEAM: A Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics.

In 2018 we published a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) that uses satellite-derived maps of food availability and temperature to predict Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, NEAM) population dynamics. Since then, to address various ecological questions, we have extended the IBM to include additional processes and data. Throughout its development, technical documents have been provided in the form of e.g. supplementary information to published articles. However, we acknowledge that it would be difficult for potential users to collate information from separate supplementary documents and gain a full understanding of the current state of the IBM. Here, we provide a full technical specification of the latest version of our IBM. The technical specification is provided in the standard ODD (Overview, Design concepts and Details) format, and supplemented by a TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaludation) document. For the first time, we give our model the acronym SEASIM-NEAM: a Spatially-Explicit Agent-based SIMulator of North East Atlantic Mackerel population dynamics. This article supersedes previous documentation. Going forward we hope that this article will stimulate development of similar models.•This article collates improvements that have been made to SEASIM-NEAM over time.

Searching for responsible and sustainable recreational fisheries in the Anthropocene.

Recreational fisheries that use rod and reel (i.e., angling) operate around the globe in diverse freshwater and marine habitats, targeting many different gamefish species and engaging at least 220 million participants. The motivations for fishing vary extensively; whether anglers engage in catch-and-release or are harvest-oriented, there is strong potential for recreational fisheries to be conducted in a manner that is both responsible and sustainable. There are many examples of recreational fisheries that are well-managed where anglers, the angling industry and managers engage in responsible behaviours that both contribute to long-term sustainability of fish populations and the sector. Yet, recreational fisheries do not operate in a vacuum; fish populations face threats and stressors including harvest from other sectors as well as environmental change, a defining characteristic of the Anthropocene. We argue that the future of recreational fisheries and indeed many wild fish populations and aquatic ecosystems depends on having responsible and sustainable (R&S) recreational fisheries whilst, where possible, addressing, or at least lobbying for increased awareness about the threats to recreational fisheries emanating from outside the sector (e.g., climate change). Here, we first consider how the concepts of R&S intersect in the recreational fishing sector in an increasingly complex socio-cultural context. Next, we explore the role of the angler, angling industry and decision-makers in achieving R&S fisheries. We extend this idea further by considering the consequences of a future without recreational fisheries (either because of failures related to R&S) and explore a pertinent case study situated in Uttarakahand, India. Unlike other fisheries sectors where the number of participants is relatively small, recreational angling participants are numerous and widespread, such that if their actions are responsible, they have the potential to be a key voice for conservation and serve as a major force for good in the Anthropocene. What remains to be seen is whether this will be achieved, or if failure will occur to the point that recreational fisheries face increasing pressure to cease, as a result of external environmental threats, the environmental effects of recreational fishing and emerging ethical concerns about the welfare of angled fish.

Heterogeneous public and local knowledge provides a qualitative indicator of coastal use by marine recreational fishers.

Marine recreational fishing (MRF) benefits individuals and economies, but can also impact fish stocks and associated ecosystems. Fish are an important resource providing direct economic benefit through commercial and recreational exploitation, and more esoteric ecosystem services. It is important to consider recreational fishing in marine spatial planning, but spatial information on coastal utilisation for MRF is frequently lacking. Public sources of local knowledge were reviewed and the frequency of unique references to sites extracted. Sites were georeferenced using a gazetteer compiled from the Ordnance Survey and United Kingdom Hydrographic Office named sea features gazetteer and local knowledge sources. Recreational fishing site densities were calculated across 2700 km of coastline and this proxy indicator of coastal utilisation validated against two independent surveys using permutative Monte Carlo sampling to control for sparse and non-independent data. Site density had fair agreement with independent surveys, but standardization by shore length reduced this agreement. Applying a 3 by 3 box filter convolution to the spatial layers improved the agreement between local knowledge derived predictions of activity and those of directed surveys, and permutation testing showed that agreement did not arise as a result of the convolution itself. High and low activity areas were more accurately predicted than areas of intermediate activity. Site density derived from heterogeneous participant and local knowledge can produce qualitative predictions of where recreational fishers fish, and applying a convolution can improve the predictive power of data so derived. However, this approach will be subject to unquantifiable bias and may fail to identify areas highly valued by marine recreational fishers. Thus it should be used in conjunction with other information in decision making and may be best suited to inform the early stage sampling design of on-site surveys or to complement other data sets in mapping areas of importance to recreational fishers.

Connectivity of larval stages of sedentary marine communities between hard substrates and offshore structures in the North Sea.

Man-made structures including rigs, pipelines, cables, renewable energy devices, and ship wrecks, offer hard substrate in the largely soft-sediment environment of the North Sea. These structures become colonised by sedentary organisms and non-migratory reef fish, and form local ecosystems that attract larger predators including seals, birds, and fish. It is possible that these structures form a system of interconnected reef environments through the planktonic dispersal of the pelagic stages of organisms by ocean currents. Changes to the overall arrangement of hard substrate areas through removal or addition of individual man-made structures will affect the interconnectivity and could impact on the ecosystem. Here, we assessed the connectivity of sectors with oil and gas structures, wind farms, wrecks, and natural hard substrate, using a model that simulates the drift of planktonic stages of seven organisms with sedentary adult stages associated with hard substrate, applied to the period 2001-2010. Connectivity was assessed using a classification system designed to address the function of sectors in the network. Results showed a relatively stable overall spatial distribution of sector function but with distinct variations between species and years. The results are discussed in the context of decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea.

The impact of marine recreational fishing on key fish stocks in European waters.

Marine recreational fishing (MRF) has been shown to substantially contribute to fishing mortality of marine fish. However, European MRF catches are only quantified for a small number of stocks, so it is unclear whether a significant part of fishing mortality is excluded from stock assessments. This study estimated: (i) European MRF removals, which were defined as landings plus dead releases; and (ii) impact at stock level by comparing the percentage contribution to total removal by MRF and commercial fishing. As MRF data were limited for some European countries, catches were reconstructed using a mixture of average release proportions, average fish weights, and extrapolation using the catch per fisher of the nearest country providing catch estimates. Where catch reconstructions exceeded 50%, data were excluded from further analysis. Furthermore, as MRF survey methodology can be variable, semi-quantitative estimates of bias and error were calculated for each stock. Only 10 of the 20 stocks assessed in this study had sufficient MRF data for full reliable estimates. Percentage contribution to total removals (MRF + commercial removals) by MRF ranged between 2% for Atlantic mackerel in the North Sea and Skagerrak and 43% for Atlantic pollack in the Celtic Seas and English Channel. The biomass removed ranged between 297 (± 116) tonnes (Atlantic cod in the western English Channel and southern Celtic seas) and 4820 (± 1889) tonnes (Atlantic mackerel in the North Sea and Skagerrak), but the errors were substantial. Additionally, the bias in the estimated removals was low for most stocks, with some positive biases found. The present study indicates that removals by MRF can represent a high proportion of the total removals for some European marine fish stocks, so inclusion in stock assessments should be routine. To achieve this, regular surveys of MRF are required to collect data essential for stock assessments.

The role of citizen science in monitoring small-scale pollution events.

Small-scale pollution events involve the release of potentially harmful substances into the marine environment. These events can affect all levels of the ecosystem, with damage to both fauna and flora. Numerous reporting structures are currently available to document spills, however there is a lack of information on small-scale events due to their magnitude and patchy distribution. To this end, volunteers may provide a useful tool in filling this data gap, especially for coastal environments with a high usage by members of the public. The potential for citizen scientists to record small-scale pollution events is explored using the UK as an example, with a focus on highlighting methods and issues associated with using this data source. An integrated monitoring system is proposed which combines citizen science and traditional reporting approaches.

SCUBA divers as oceanographic samplers: The potential of dive computers to augment aquatic temperature monitoring.

Monitoring temperature of aquatic waters is of great importance, with modelled, satellite and in-situ data providing invaluable insights into long-term environmental change. However, there is often a lack of depth-resolved temperature measurements. Recreational dive computers routinely record temperature and depth, so could provide an alternate and highly novel source of oceanographic information to fill this data gap. In this study, a citizen science approach was used to obtain over 7,000 scuba diver temperature profiles. The accuracy, offset and lag of temperature records was assessed by comparing dive computers with scientific conductivity-temperature-depth instruments and existing surface temperature data. Our results show that, with processing, dive computers can provide a useful and novel tool with which to augment existing monitoring systems all over the globe, but especially in under-sampled or highly changeable coastal environments.

Use of spatiotemporal analysis of laboratory submission data to identify potential outbreaks of new or emerging diseases in cattle in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: New and emerging diseases of livestock may impact animal welfare, trade and public health. Early detection of outbreaks can reduce the impact of these diseases by triggering control measures that limit the number of cases that occur. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prospective spatiotemporal methods could be used to identify outbreaks of new and emerging diseases in scanning surveillance data. SaTScan was used to identify clusters of unusually high levels of submissions where a diagnosis could not be reached (DNR) using different probability models and baselines. The clusters detected were subjected to a further selection process to reduce the number of false positives and a more detailed epidemiological analysis to ascertain whether they were likely to represent real outbreaks. RESULTS: 187,925 submissions of clinical material from cattle were made to the Regional Laboratory of the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) between 2002 and 2007, and the results were stored on the VLA FarmFile database. 16,925 of these were classified as DNRs and included in the analyses. Variation in the number and proportion of DNRs was found between syndromes and regions, so a spatiotemporal analysis for each DNR syndrome was done. Six clusters were identified using the Bernoulli model after applying selection criteria (e.g. size of cluster). The further epidemiological analysis revealed that one of the systemic clusters could plausibly have been due to Johne's disease. The remainder were either due to misclassification or not consistent with a single diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses have demonstrated that spatiotemporal methods can be used to detect clusters of new or emerging diseases, identify clusters of known diseases that may not have been diagnosed and identify misclassification in the data, and highlighted the impact of data quality on the ability to detect outbreaks. Spatiotemporal methods should be used alongside current temporal methods for analysis of scanning surveillance data. These statistical analyses should be followed by further investigation of possible outbreaks to determine whether cases have common features suggesting that these are likely to represent real outbreaks, or whether issues with the collection or processing of information have resulted in false positives.

Spatial distribution of the active surveillance of sheep scrapie in Great Britain: an exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: This paper explores the spatial distribution of sampling within the active surveillance of sheep scrapie in Great Britain. We investigated the geographic distribution of the birth holdings of sheep sampled for scrapie during 2002 - 2005, including samples taken in abattoir surveys (c. 83,100) and from sheep that died in the field ("fallen stock", c. 14,600). We mapped the birth holdings by county and calculated the sampling rate, defined as the proportion of the holdings in each county sampled by the surveys. The Moran index was used to estimate the global spatial autocorrelation across Great Britain. The contributions of each county to the global Moran index were analysed by a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA). RESULTS: The sampling rate differed among counties in both surveys, which affected the distribution of detected cases of scrapie. Within each survey, the county sampling rates in different years were positively correlated during 2002-2005, with the abattoir survey being more strongly autocorrelated through time than the fallen stock survey. In the abattoir survey, spatial indices indicated that sampling rates in neighbouring counties tended to be similar, with few significant contrasts. Sampling rates were strongly correlated with sheep density, being highest in Wales, Southwest England and Northern England. This relationship with sheep density accounted for over 80% of the variation in sampling rate among counties. In the fallen stock survey, sampling rates in neighbouring counties tended to be different, with more statistically significant contrasts. The fallen stock survey also included a larger proportion of holdings providing many samples. CONCLUSION: Sampling will continue to be uneven unless action is taken to make it more uniform, if more uniform sampling becomes a target. Alternatively, analyses of scrapie occurrence in these datasets can take account of the distribution of sampling. Combining the surveys only partially reduces uneven sampling. Adjusting the distribution of sampling between abattoirs to reduce the bias in favour of regions with high sheep densities could probably achieve more even sampling. However, any adjustment of sampling should take account of the current understanding of the distribution of scrapie cases, which will be improved by further analysis of this dataset.

Associations between lamb survival and prion protein genotype: analysis of data for ten sheep breeds in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: Selective breeding programmes, based on prion protein (PrP) genotype, have been introduced throughout the European Union to reduce the risk of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). These programmes could have negative consequences on other important traits, such as fitness and production traits, if the PrP gene has pleiotropic effects or is in linkage disequilibrium with genes affecting these traits. This paper presents the results of an investigation into associations between lamb survival and PrP genotype in ten mainstream sheep breeds in Great Britain (GB). In addition, the reasons for lamb deaths were examined in order to identify any associations between these and PrP genotype. RESULTS: Survival times from birth to weaning were analysed for over 38000 lambs (2427 dead and 36096 live lambs) from 128 flocks using Cox proportional hazard models for each breed, including additive animal genetic effects. No significant associations between PrP genotype and lamb survival were identified, except in the Charollais breed for which there was a higher risk of mortality in lambs of the ARR/VRQ genotype compared with those of the ARR/ARR genotype. Significant effects of birth weight, litter size, sex, age of dam and year of birth on survival were also identified. For all breeds the reasons for death changed significantly with age; however, no significant associations between reason for death and PrP genotype were found for any of the breeds. CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence to suggest that a selective breeding programme based on PrP genotype will have a detrimental effect on lamb survival. The only significant effect of PrP genotype identified was likely to be of little consequence because an increased risk of mortality was associated with a genotype that is selected against in current breeding strategies.